Public debate often blames low fertility on “untraditional, selfish” youth. Associate Professor Yalei Zhai tests this claim with data from China.

Building a quantitative index of Confucian familism, which covers support for parents in old age, lineage continuity, and “more children, more blessings,” Prof. Zhai uses causal inference to ask a simple question. Do stronger family-first values lead to plans for two or more children?

The answer is no. Stronger familism does not raise higher-parity intentions. Among younger women, it often links causally with a view that one child is enough. Policy simulations show only small average gains. Cash transfers help a little. Tax relief helps a little. More childcare helps a little.

Why might this happen? Familism works as a rule about being a “good mother.” Parents want a successful child and a respectable household. These expectations meet real uncertainty about schooling and jobs. Time costs rise. Career costs rise. Perceived risks rise. Households with stronger family-first views become less likely to choose a second birth. This pattern is not selfishness. It reflects heavy responsibility in a very competitive setting. Many women pause because they want a future for their children with autonomy and dignity.

This research was published in the Journal of Family Issues on September 18, 2025.

Author’s Comments

Anxiety about childbearing and childrearing is not driven only by time costs or career penalties. A larger driver is uncertainty about a child’s future in highly competitive settings such as urban China. This is not selfishness. It reflects heavy responsibility and a harsh social environment. Many women hesitate because they want their children to grow up with autonomy and dignity.

Researcher

Yalei Zhai　Activity Database on Education and Research, Kyoto University

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<About the paper>
Yalei Zhai, Associate Professor, Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University
E-mail:  zhai [at] cseas.kyoto-u.ac.jp (Please replace [at] with @.)

<About the publicity>
Public Relations Committee, Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University
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